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Episode 2 – June 2, 2025.
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At the 4:05 point, Neal asks Scott “how do we eliminate that?”
TL;DR: Inductive reasoning avoid paralysis through analysis. Deductive reasoning is the homeland of paralysis through analysis.
Longer explanation: I develop base-line odds in the pre-game. These establish the case around which I pivot potential examples during play. Pivot occurs through things that change either side of the equation.
First, some math literacy helps. Not deep math, just basic statistics we all took in high school. The ability to see and .5 (50%) x .5 (50%) == .25 (25%). Knowing this, you can quickly pull the math needed together. You should do this in your pre-game. In the armor game, comparing his TK to your AF. This allows you to know one side of the equation. Adding to this the middle TH DR (7) should give you the “average” chance to be killed.
The second step is knowing the DRM or anything else that shifts the equation to some level. The TH half is shifted by TH DRM. The TK half is shifted by Armor Facing and range. You don’t have to know the exact amounts, you just have to know what does it. Knowing that a change of TCA shifts the average in your favor, seek favorable engagements to the best of your ability. Over time, you will refine this with play.
In the Infantry game, it’s the same thing. Assumes a DR 7 causes an NMC and your unit passes on a DR <= their morale. This gives you a base chance to break. Now, how do you change that? Dashing halves FP so reduces the FP side of the equation. Smoke reduces the FP side. TEM, Hinderance, etc. Again, you don't need to know to what level, you just need to know they do and take advantage of them.
People get caught up in knowing the EXACT odds (specific case). I rarely know the exact odds in the moment. What I know is your base chance for success (computed in the pre-game) and how I can manipulate that to my benefit (general case). I don't need much more than that. Sometimes, after the game, my opponent and I will discuss the odds and then I will do the math. Usually this in the context of them saying "you got a little lucky with X". When we do the math, sometimes they are right, but often they are not and it's easy to see and explain why.
Another good episode. I really like the length, perfect for a listen while walking the dogs. Question, do you see more paralysis in newer players due to uncertainty over rules or interpretation of the rules than say more seasoned players?